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How Not to Be Fooled · Chapter 4

Together Is Not Because

Correlation, lurking variables, and arrows that point the wrong way

Ice cream and swimming, roosters and sunrise, storks and chimneys. Jules learns that two numbers rising together is a clue — and 'because' is a word that has to earn a badge.

12 panels · ~6 min read

A summer boardwalk shows busy ice-cream carts beside a crowded beach, while a kid draws two arrows rising together.

Panel 1

A researcher sketches a blazing sun between an ice-cream cart and a beach, showing heat as the hidden third cause.

Panel 2

A rooster crows on a fence as the sun lifts on the horizon, while a kid realizes the bird does not cause morning.

Panel 3

Storks nest on tall village rooftops above a street of baby carriages, hinting that houses — not storks — link the two.

Panel 4

A rainy street full of umbrellas and wet pavement, while a kid jokes that umbrellas do not cause rain.

Panel 5

A child plays piano near a report card while parents with books wait in the background, suggesting more than one cause.

Panel 6

A researcher waters one of two identical plant pots on the same windowsill, leaving the other dry on purpose.

Panel 7

On the same windowsill, a watered plant stands taller beside a drooping dry plant.

Panel 8

Several fire trucks surround a large fire, illustrating that bigger emergencies draw more trucks rather than trucks causing damage.

Panel 9

A researcher sketches two figures traveling together and a third sneaky character with a lever, the hidden cause.

Panel 10

A kid holds a news clipping of two rising arrows while a researcher peels it back to reveal a hidden third cause.

Panel 11

At dusk a kid writes that together is not because, while a researcher hints at tomorrow's lesson on rare events.

Panel 12

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